this is a tough one. There are predictions on both sides of the fence. If you haven't seen this article yet, it's interesting:
http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/special/SummerChat1.php
http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/special/SummerChat1.php
boxofficemojo.com reports it took just over $30 million on Friday! Aiiieeee!
"Super Early 'X2' Friday Estimate - $30+ Million..."
'X2: X-Men United' took the nation by storm on Friday with even greater force than previously thought.
The early numbers that made it look like a $27 million Friday foir 'X2' didn't tell the full story. More info poured in and it looks like the Marvel-ous mutants enjoyed an opening day in the low $30 million range, upping its weekend trajectory to about $80 million.
That puts 'X2' well ahead of summer 2001's kick-off 'The Mummy Returns,' which unwrapped $23 million on its opening day and $68.1 million for the weekend. 'Spider-Man' shattered all records on the books with its $39.4 million opening day on this same Friday last year, leading to its unprecedented $114.8 million weekend.
The first 'X-Men' movie took in $21 million on its opening day in 2000, which would equal over $23 million today adjusted for ticket price inflation. It nabbed $54.5 million in its first weekend.
Complete and precise Friday estimates will be posted shortly.
NOTE: The initial estimate was made at around 1 a.m. Pacific time. Apparently, the early reports from theaters (mostly East Coast obviously) turned out to be very incomplete. The estimates I make Saturday mornings (i.e. when the sun is up) remain the most accurate available.
"Super Early 'X2' Friday Estimate - $30+ Million..."
'X2: X-Men United' took the nation by storm on Friday with even greater force than previously thought.
The early numbers that made it look like a $27 million Friday foir 'X2' didn't tell the full story. More info poured in and it looks like the Marvel-ous mutants enjoyed an opening day in the low $30 million range, upping its weekend trajectory to about $80 million.
That puts 'X2' well ahead of summer 2001's kick-off 'The Mummy Returns,' which unwrapped $23 million on its opening day and $68.1 million for the weekend. 'Spider-Man' shattered all records on the books with its $39.4 million opening day on this same Friday last year, leading to its unprecedented $114.8 million weekend.
The first 'X-Men' movie took in $21 million on its opening day in 2000, which would equal over $23 million today adjusted for ticket price inflation. It nabbed $54.5 million in its first weekend.
Complete and precise Friday estimates will be posted shortly.
NOTE: The initial estimate was made at around 1 a.m. Pacific time. Apparently, the early reports from theaters (mostly East Coast obviously) turned out to be very incomplete. The estimates I make Saturday mornings (i.e. when the sun is up) remain the most accurate available.
*Expecting* over a 15% increase on the second day of release? No way, no how... Spiderman was an anomaly, and it only had a 10.7% boost its second day -- and it had a HIGHER opening day totals than X-Men 2. Most movies DIP between 5-10% on their second day of release.
X-Men 2 is doing very well, and I feel pretty comfortable with my OVER 75.5 million wager -- but I don't expect this movie to top $95 million opening weekend.
X-Men 2 is doing very well, and I feel pretty comfortable with my OVER 75.5 million wager -- but I don't expect this movie to top $95 million opening weekend.
Don't see why X2 couldn't hit +15% on Saturday. More people will go see a movie on Saturday than Friday
Here's some recent movies:
Identity: +16.99% day 2
Anger Management: +11.27% day 2
Confidence: +37.55% day 2
Phone Booth: +18.88% day 2
The Core: +26.09% day 2
Those can't all be anomalies. I think it has more to do with the word of mouth a movie gets off the bat, and X2 is being extrememly well received. But take a movie like Daredevil, (which 3 people called me on after the first Friday and told me not to waste my time going to see it)- yeah, a movie like that will have a drop the next day.
Here's some recent movies:
Identity: +16.99% day 2
Anger Management: +11.27% day 2
Confidence: +37.55% day 2
Phone Booth: +18.88% day 2
The Core: +26.09% day 2
Those can't all be anomalies. I think it has more to do with the word of mouth a movie gets off the bat, and X2 is being extrememly well received. But take a movie like Daredevil, (which 3 people called me on after the first Friday and told me not to waste my time going to see it)- yeah, a movie like that will have a drop the next day.
I hear what you're saying. I admit that I'm a little biased in that I left work and saw it twice in the afternoon on Friday, both times the theaters were less than half full (because of this, I was actually surprised by the first day take of over 30 mill). So I'm basing my projection on the assumption that those same daytime showings on Saturday will now be full with no one at work or in school - giving it an increase. We'll see, but no matter what, the OVER looks like money!
Mojo's got it projected at 88. JC, to get a very rough estimate, I just multiply it by 3
Up on saturday, down on sunday.... Not sure why it might be different for big blockbusters, that saturdays are lower than fridays? usually Saturday is the biggest day, maybe for these big movies like someone mentioned, the theaters get over-saturated on Friday because of the anticipation factor. Haven't looked into it.
From what I've been reading, it seems like the Friday numbers were a few million too high than the actual numbers. If it got $31 million the first day, and $32 million the second day, yet $88 million is the forecasted weekend total, you're looking at a HUGE dropoff from Saturday to Sunday.
As I said, with a movie that draws in this much money its opening day, an increase of 15% is just way too unrealistic. Totals right now show the increase to be 3% from Fri->Sat.
It's the movies that pull in less than $20-$25 mill on their opening days that have the large increases (10-15%) on the second day.
As I said, with a movie that draws in this much money its opening day, an increase of 15% is just way too unrealistic. Totals right now show the increase to be 3% from Fri->Sat.
It's the movies that pull in less than $20-$25 mill on their opening days that have the large increases (10-15%) on the second day.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by winkyduck:
according to this:
http://movies.yahoo.com/movies/feature/weekendboxofficer.html
$85.9M<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Shit. While I do have a small amount on "X-Men2 76 million to 85.9 million" at +120, that was just a backup to my real bet "X-Men2 86 million to 97.9 million" @+300. If I miss that by less than $100K, I'll be pissed. The $85.9 figure is Fox's estimate. Other movie studios have put the estimate between 90-95 mill:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>"It exceeded our expectations," Fox distribution chief Bruce Snyder told Box Office Mojo. "On Thursday, I was thinking maybe we'd get $75 million. So $85 million was a pleasant surprise, though not shocking."
However, the weekend does have a twist. Fox's estimates have been overly optimistic for tent poles before, such as last May's overshooting of Attack of the Clones's opening by $6 million and the first X-Men's by nearly $3 million. This time, though, the opposite may be true as competing studios have X2 pegged $5 million higher than Fox does.
"It's so tricky to make estimates with a release this wide, factoring in all those missing theaters," Snyder explained. "Everyone else has us at $90 million to $95 million. I hope they're right."
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
according to this:
http://movies.yahoo.com/movies/feature/weekendboxofficer.html
$85.9M<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Shit. While I do have a small amount on "X-Men2 76 million to 85.9 million" at +120, that was just a backup to my real bet "X-Men2 86 million to 97.9 million" @+300. If I miss that by less than $100K, I'll be pissed. The $85.9 figure is Fox's estimate. Other movie studios have put the estimate between 90-95 mill:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>"It exceeded our expectations," Fox distribution chief Bruce Snyder told Box Office Mojo. "On Thursday, I was thinking maybe we'd get $75 million. So $85 million was a pleasant surprise, though not shocking."
However, the weekend does have a twist. Fox's estimates have been overly optimistic for tent poles before, such as last May's overshooting of Attack of the Clones's opening by $6 million and the first X-Men's by nearly $3 million. This time, though, the opposite may be true as competing studios have X2 pegged $5 million higher than Fox does.
"It's so tricky to make estimates with a release this wide, factoring in all those missing theaters," Snyder explained. "Everyone else has us at $90 million to $95 million. I hope they're right."
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
